POSTINGS |
Going Downhill |
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At the beginning of the 19th century advances in medicine lead to the establishment of specialist fever or isolation hospitals to treat patients with infectious diseases - such as scarlet fever and smallpox. Early examples in England being the Liverpool Fever Hospital (1801) and the London Fever Hospital (1802). Such hospitals became common in England when laws were enacted requiring the notification of infectious diseases by public health officials. The Catherine-de-Barnes Isolation Hospital was established in 1907 near Solihull in the West Midlands. It stayed operational into the 1980s - becoming the last in service when the six other remaining NHS isolation hospitals were closed down in 1981. But then in 1987 even this hospital was closed, fumigated and sold for luxury housing. An event that ended almost 200 years of putting patients with highly-contagious diseases in dedicated hospitals. Back then it was thought that we would never need isolation hospitals again. All the world health challenges were either under control or far away.
Early in the outbreak the UK government raced to establish seven temporary hospitals for Covid patients - with no expense spared. A move that could have re-established the isolation model that had worked in the past. But no! Instead the approach has been to free-up space in existing hospitals so that infectious Covid patients could share resources - and viruses - with those too sick to be included in the bed-freeing-up strategy. The results of which were death sentences for care home residents, a lack of resources for other serious conditions, cancellations of elective surgery and a reluctance within the general population to go anywhere near a hospital. According to the Daily Telegraph a few weeks ago NHS chiefs had already been urged to assign all Covid patients to isolation hospitals in order to curb the spread of the virus, but the scientists involved were told that the move - though adopted in other countries and used effectively here before - was "too difficult" for the current NHS to achieve! So we are now facing growing numbers of cases being handled in a repeat of the same approach that caused so many problems before. While we have new, purpose-built hospitals sitting empty and unused since June ... The front line NHS staff have been working very hard - but the ability of their leadership seems to have really gone downhill relative to other countries and those 19th century pioneers. The phrase lions lead by donkeys comes to mind ... |
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tags: virus, threat, solution, past experience |
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Another Broken Promise? |
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Here we are at another deadline in the EU relationship saga. And it is sobering to reflect that there are eight year-olds who have spent their entire lives with Brexit on the national agenda.
By tomorrow we should find out. But there is a feeling that this is a critical tipping point. Anything other than the UK landlord calling last orders tonight will show everyone - on both sides - just how weak and ineffective the UK leadership has become ... |
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tags: promises, broken, EU, deceit, despair, trade, politics |
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It’ll All End In Tiers? |
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It’s autumn and already the supermarket shelves are being stacked with Christmas specials while the British media tries to generate the false impression that there are shortages of essentials due to panic buying. For this Grandad mince pies are high on the essentials list - but with the raw materials to make them already stockpiled there are no concerns on that front.
With just three months remaining before the end of transition and just a few weeks before the next final deadline any businesses relying on importing or exporting across the Channel must be crying out for definite border policies and procedures. The optimistic view is that exports from the EU to UK will be VAT free and cheaper but the pessimistic view is that something as simple as buying an item on Amazon will involve extra processes that increase the final price significantly. Who knows? Certainly not Joe Public. And most probably not Joe Public’s member of parliament either. Then a close second comes Covid-19 - or rather the various attempts by our leaders to solve a health pandemic by issuing random rules, laws and slogans. Today’s news that even if a vaccine is found and approved by early 2021 it will take all of next year to treat most people. So we face starting 2021 with both Covid lock-downs and massive hold-ups at all the ports. But our government has things under control, it says, and is looking to make things clearer by putting Covid restrictions into three tiers ... Some distance behind these two we have threats of political rebellions in Scotland and Ireland - plus even within Scotland - and an increasingly unstable situation within British royalty. With the head of state being in a high-risk age group, the heir apparent being past retirement age, the Duke of York being tangled up in US litigation and Harry, formerly known as Prince, having become a minister of the Woke-ist religion there are is a minefield of potential disasters not far ahead for the House of Windsor. Interesting times ... |
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tags: virus, threat, finance, economy, employment, deal, fragmentation, monarchy |
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Equinoxe |
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The day counter on the Daily Mail web site is showing 183 days so that’s half of the year spent living under constantly changing restrictions. From the Spring Equinox to the Autumn one the whole country has been subjected to an unprecedented torrent of instructions about our daily lives from on high. Even the Queen has been severely restricted by advice and laws which supposedly protect us, our economy and our health service from the terrors of Covid-19 infection.
Quite what will have improved the infection rate by then is not at all clear. One assumption is that there will be an effective, economic and safe preventative vaccination by them. But that’s a big ask when the common cold corona virus still has no vaccine after decades of attempts. Plus there are reports that natural antibodies to protect us from Covid-19 only have a limited life - so calling into doubt the value of any mass immunisation programme even if a vaccine is found. The current picture suggests that nothing will actually remove the Covid-19 virus from the planet by then. Government measures can restrict its spread but the virus is like some invisible flood water that will break into anywhere that is unguarded. And even New Zealand’s success cannot guard every one of its citizens all of the time. But it is also clear that after six more months of restrictions the national economy will be in a terrible state and those bountiful government handouts for everything from overseas aid to winter fuel payments; from high-speed railways to child benefits; from arts funding to state pensions will be facing the axe. Messers Whitty and Vallance may have been painting an extreme scenario with 49,000 cases per day by 13-Oct-2020 but it seems more likely that by 2021 our high streets will be ghost towns and their civil service pension funds will be facing collapse or at least a major devaluation. Then they may have to concede that Sweden has played the hand dealt to it by fate much better ... |
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tags: virus, disease, threat, finance, economy, employment, rules |
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A Lifetime Ago |
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Seventy-five years ago today Japan’s years of aggression and brutality across Asia and the Pacific were brought to an abrupt end by their realisation that allied atomic bombs could destroy entire Japanese cities. For my uncle the news signalled an end to his time in the British Army fighting in the jungles of Burma - and the prospect of getting back to his family in England unharmed.
But I’m pretty sure that none of the families of those that served in this forgotten army objected to the words. In fact their only objections seem certain to be over the exclusion of this traditional song ... despite it featuring in previous anniversary broadcasts. To make up for weakness of the BBC’s cancel culture woke squad here is the first verse of Rudyard Kipling’s poem - By the old Moulmein Pagoda, lookin' eastward to the sea, Update 23-Aug-2020 Just to compound the BBC’s descent into absurdity comes the news that Land of Hope and Glory and Rule Britannia are likely to be dropped from the Last Night of the Proms on the whim of Dalia Stasevska this year’s conductor. Not sure why a single Ukrainian born, Finnish national should take priority over a much-loved tradition at this once per year celebration of British heritage. But then the BBC seems determined to kill-off anything - and anyone - that stands in the way of its complete wokewash. Update 28-Aug-2020 Ms Stasevska’s management company has now issued a statement insisting that she had no part in the BBC's decision to cut the patriotic anthems. This seems to imply that the conductor was used as an unknowing decoy for the BBC management to hide their revisionist agenda behind. The wokewash continues ... |
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tags: VJ-Day, anniversary, woke-speak, misguided, BBC |
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What’s Going Wrong? |
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As a fan of cycle racing the virus restrictions have meant that so far this year there has been no chance to watch hours of live TV from around a variety of scenic European venues.
So how did Tuscany cope handling a sports event within the pandemic restrictions? No problem - the crowds were just as dense as previous years. No one in the crowds or amongst the officials was seen wearing face coverings. And the competitors were definitely breathing heavily by the finish. True it was outdoors which might help but the sheer numbers packed into the centre of Sienna meant that social distancing was non-existent. However it seems that no one was breaking the rules. Tuscany is functioning pretty close to normal. And based upon this afternoon’s observations the financial impact on this part of Italy will be far less than it will be in the UK. Back here we have the Chief Medical Officer warning that restrictions cannot be relaxed as we have reached the limit of what can be allowed. The government are reversing the lifting of some restrictions with very little notice - and there are threats that pubs will have to shut in order for schools to reopen after the summer break. What’s going wrong? Italy was hard hit at the start of the pandemic - so how come it is the UK where the restrictions are much worse and the financial impact greater? Clearly there are serious problems - but whether these are caused by the Goverment, the public servants, the medical professions or simply a stupid, non-compliant public is anyone’s guess ... |
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tags: virus, disease, threat, finance, economy, employment, rules |
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Just The Facts Ma’am |
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Back in the day this time in July would be when whole towns went on their annual holidays. And even though the days of mass employment in a regional manufacturing industry are long gone people still feel the need to take a break now.
Trying to get an accurate picture of employment this autumn - based upon realistic projections about thousands of employers - is almost impossible. Instead we have just best guesses. But even the most optimistic observers expect that unemployment will rise - quite possibly by a lot. A view that does not seem to be reflected in the recent story that unemployment could hit 3 million. Given that there are 9 million on furlough - and that some sectors such as tourism, hospitality and entertainment are predicting up to 90% of them will become redundant - the figure of 3 million unemployed seems too low. For that to be the case a large percentage of the 9 million need to return to work. Perhaps that is the government plan - but what ever is being calculated behind closed doors it would be much better for Whitehall to give us the unvarnished facts .. just the facts. |
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tags: virus, disease, threat, finance, economy, employment, work |
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Expert Opinion 2 |
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After watching Government broadcasts daily for months Grandads have largely been prepared to follow the experts’ advice - no matter how much it lacked in logical consistency.
When the risks were greatest and the case numbers were peaking back in April the sage advice was that face coverings were not required outdoors, in supermarkets or in the few shops that were still open. In fact they were being described as counter-productive because wearers might act as if they were better protected than any non-surgical mask can provide. But then last week Scotland decreed that they were going to be required in shops from 10-July while the UK-wide government in London did not. Now we are told that the disparity between Scotland and England will end on 24-July when the same rule will apply. But why? If face coverings are required now in Gretna Green why not a few miles south in Carlisle? If they are compulsory in 10 days time in England what is so different over the next 9 days? Why wait until 24-July for them become so important that you will be liable for a fine for not obeying. Now face coverings are just one of the differences in rules that were and will be applied seemingly at random by various levels of government - often claiming to be based on medical advice. Advice which is itself inconsistent and lacking in hard evidence. The only slight bright spot is that the police have no chance of enforcing the law .. like so many things that politicians pass laws about! |
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tags: quarantine, virus, disease, threat, expert, advice, masked |
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Expert Opinion |
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Today the UK press have a series of quotes from Tom Jefferson, a professor at Oxford University's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. One was - In 1918 around 30 per cent of the population of Western Samoa died of Spanish Flu, and they hadn’t had any communication with the outside world. He added: The explanation for this could only be that these agents don’t come or go anywhere. They are always here and something ignites them, maybe human density or environmental conditions, and this is what we should be looking for.
Now the case of Western Samoa is not some minor incident hidden in the archives. It was the subject of a royal commission and a UN report. It impacted relations with New Zealand for decades. So either the professor is deliberately giving out false statements or is most unsuitable for his academic rank and position ... So much for this expert’s opinion. Now let’s all hope that those experts in the UK Government’s SAGE group live up to their grand title regarding the handling of Covid-19. |
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tags: quarantine, virus, disease, threat, expert, advice |
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Modern English Usage |
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It may not be caused by the Corona Virus or the weather or the worries over jobs but it certainly seems to have fuelled the current climate of extreme righteousness over the use of words and phrases.
The classic example is the ... lives matter slogan. If completed with the word black - then it’s fully woke-compliant. If completed with the words white or all - then it’s right-wing, racist and a sacking offence. If completed with some other colour or simply left blank - then it’s either an unfunny joke at best or the same as ‘all’ at worst - depending on the audience. The British public have a long history of freedom of speech but today the only approved options are repeating the woke-speak slogans or staying silent. Echoes of Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot ... |
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tags: silent, silenced, 1984, thought, police |
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Spring Has Really Sprung |
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The last day of Spring marks the end of a quarter the like of which no one living today has ever seen before.
The nature of the virus and its infection process has fed two contradicting fears - huge death tolls and - overreacting to a minor health issue. And even though the 38,000 UK deaths to date are a shocking statistic the economic impact of the government measures - such as paying the wages of millions to stay at home - will hold the nation back for decades. So arguments are rife that lock-downs are being lifted too soon or not quickly enough. And that the virus is either a major threat to the nation or nothing worse than seasonal flu. Arguments that have now taken on political dimensions. With Labour supporters generally taking the opposite view to the Conservative ones. Hardly conducive to achieving the best outcome. But politics, rules and regulations aside Mother Nature seems to taken notice of the lack of emissions from factories, motor vehicles and aviation. With reduced exhaust gases and the absence of con trails clouding the skies Spring has been a new experience for everyone here in middle England. Record sunshine hours, number of dry days and above average temperatures have pushed the time at home to new levels of outdoor activity. It’s just a pity that most of us have not been able to share the glorious weather with friends and relatives ... |
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tags: quarantine, virus, safety, threat, weather |
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Wrong Place, Wrong Time |
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Question - what do these world cities have in common; New York, Ahmedabad, San Francisco, Hanoi, Mumbai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Tel Aviv, Cairo, Guangzhou, Bahrain, Amman, Tokyo, Buenos Aires, Dhaka, Islamabad, Jeddah, Hong Kong, Delhi and Colombo?
And that’s just some of the flights arriving today. Now the experts sound convinced when they say this daily traffic has no significant effect on the Covid-19 infection rates in the UK. But there are two points that seem worth making. First there are still thousands of new cases being reported each day (4,406 yesterday) despite 43 days of UK lock-down. They must be coming from somewhere - and places like New York are exceptionally risky locations to have on any flight path. Second there is a notable absence of any flights from Australia and New Zealand. Places that normally would have lots of flights. And both are countries that have contained the spread of the virus very well. In contrast to the UK’s loss of over 600 more lives yesterday Australia has limited deaths to around 100 - in total - since the start of the pandemic. And popular tourist destinations like Queensland have recorded just 6 deaths in total while the UK is still averaging 6 deaths every 14 minutes - according to yesterday’s official figures. So no scientific proof of anything - but where would you prefer your family and friends to be living today - London or Brisbane? |
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tags: quarantine, virus, safety, threat, travel |
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Still Here |
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As the days of anti-virus lock-down drift into weeks and then months and the number of national fatalities grows by hundreds with every passing day the question Are you OK? becomes the new normal. Luckily our friends and family still are but there is that element of concern that one day our collective luck will run out.
Judging by the queues at DIY stores there is plenty of catching up on home repairs and improvements in progress. While lots more have been boosting their domestic comms technology to contact everything from school lessons to government support schemes. And if the garden centres re-open (and if the public are allowed to visit) there will be a big boost in garden activity - perhaps with more grow your own fruit and veg efforts. Additionally long neglected hobbies are being brought out of retirement to help fill the time spent in virtual house arrest. And status that could apply for all of 2020! But to repeat the answer to that recurring key question - Yes we are still here ... |
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tags: quarantine, virus, safety, threat |
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Easter Silence |
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Today the most important date in the Christian calendar seems to be played out in a sort of eerie silence - almost as if the whole population is waiting for some bombs to go off or some races to start. Certainly in Rome the Easter ceremonies have been devoid of pilgrims and locals alike. A situation that may not have been experienced since before the reign of the Emperor Constantine one thousand seven hundred years ago. Even the Black Death and many plagues of the middle ages could not have such an impact on the attendance of the faithful.
As for that unseen enemy, the Covid-19 virus spread worldwide from Wuhan, it is still claiming a rapidly escalating victim count - and pushing many national economies to breaking point. There is little point in quoting today’s infection figures here as they are already widely published but it is worth wishing that we never experience the doomsday scenarios that some are predicting ... |
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tags virus, pneumonia, financial meltdown, defenceless |
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Viral Pandemic |
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Two months ago at our first posting the Wuhan virus was a distant threat. Now it’s spreading all around the world; with Europe being the first directly impacted once the virus had left Asia.
All the points about the financial impact have already been said - but the numbers just keep getting larger and larger. Businesses from the smallest trader to the mega corporation are facing complete collapse has virtually every sector outside of food, power and health care is shut down either by government order or by lack of customers. Everything from tourism to sport - pop concerts to voting - has been stopped. For example the mega-millions normally circulating in the world of TV broadcasting rights has evaporated. The Grand National, Wimbledon, even the Olympic Games will not happen until normality returns. If it ever does. The year 2020 will be remembered for a long time - by the survivors ... |
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tags virus, economy, history lesson, pneumonia, financial meltdown, defenceless |
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Extinguished Rebellion |
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Ten more days of spiralling into the corona virus black hole and many countries have already resorted to extreme measures. In Europe national borders and interests are back in control - along with extreme financial measures that are making the 2008 financial crash look like small beer.
Here the over 70’s are already in isolation until June. But when the survivors emerge the virus will not have disappeared. They will become victims then rather than now - unless a cure has been found. Since no one has a natural immunity the virus will continue to infect the population for years - possibly re-infecting those that have survived the previous waves. And we already have several strains of the corona virus indicating that it could adapt over time and evolve into something even worse. Back at the international finance level the desperate measures are creating vast debts as governments strain to prop-up essential services - healthcare, education, police, fire, ambulance, military, public transport, fuel, water, etc - and the vast numbers of unemployed. All against a backdrop of collapsing government taxation income and falling asset values. But it’s not entirely bad news. The huge falls in pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have already resulted in clearer skys and climate benefits - sooner than even the most ardent activists could have reasonably expected. While on the political front the people of Scotland will be well aware that their country could not have faced the current challenge on its own. And those that want to extend the UK-EU trade negotiations are having to face-up to the fact that the world economy has already been reset. The trade agreement fine print has been reduced to irrelevance. The people that survive this will need the essentials of life to be traded as safely and efficiently as possible - with no room for artificial barriers created by bureaucrats and civil servants. |
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tags virus, economy, history lesson, pneumonia, financial meltdown, defenceless |
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Viral Threat 2 |
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Five weeks on from Grandad’s last posting and the Wuhan Virus now has a new name - plus has expanded world-wide. In the UK Covid-19 has now claimed 21 lives but that may well have increased even before this posting appears online.
If the compounding growth rate of infections continues the next few weeks will see the number of deaths grow every day - claiming mainly the elderly and the already vulnerable. The short-term prospects are to prepare for bad news. But even if the virus has no direct impact on your friends and family, the financial chaos that is being created almost certainly will. Take cities like Oxford, Cambridge, York and even Edinburgh that depend upon tourism and overseas students for a large percentage of their turnover. Hotels, restaurants, retailers, airlines, coach and train companies are all going to experience drastic cuts to their incomes. Jobs will go and businesses will fail - even if there is billions in government support. And away from these high profile examples there will still be major disruptions and life-changing events. Take football - where many clubs below the Premier League depend upon gate receipts and local corporate sponsors. If both income streams stop then closure can be the only outcome. The hope is that the numbers of new infections will start to decline by summer - and allow some of the restrictions to be lifted; so letting trade slowly return. However the UK, along with other major economies, was far from being financially healthy before Covid-19 appeared. This is why we have had such low interest rates - and why the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, cut interest rates to 0.25% before the Budget last week. Quite a way to leave office - tomorrow! How will this all turn out? Who knows. But Grandad is off to read-up about Spanish Flu and check that his will is still valid ... |
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tags: virus, economy, history lesson, pneumonia |
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But in 2020 all the rules changed - to the extent that this year has already seen the Covid worldwide toll reach some 38 million infections and around 1,086,000 known deaths - over 43,000 of them in the UK.
Today’s question is will the UK government, that is the Prime Minister, walk away from the fraught trade negotiations by midnight tonight - as promised? Or will they allow the EU politicians to impose their timetable instead?
However taking a somewhat broader view there are plenty of things that could go badly wrong for Britain. First the infamous, but non-existent, trade deal with the European Union is needed by both sides - but not at any price. And those that expected the EU to take a pragmatic and fair approach have been rudely shaken out of their dreams. We have to hope that the politicians can stop playing their political games and come to a sensible solution. But it’s not something that has happened very often, or very quickly, in the past - and the EU has a worse than average track record; mainly because there are so many different countries trying to come to a common consensus. What suits Spain does not suit Germany, etc, etc.
But today’s announcement to parliament by our Prime Minister (and Covid victim), Boris Johnson, set out not just more rules to be followed but also the prospect that they will be in place for a further six months.
To mark the anniversary there are various events today; the main ones being covered by the BBC. And normally the BBC do make a good job of covering such state occasions. Sadly this year the BBC seems to have failed by excluding the iconic Army marching song On The Road To Mandalay - apparently because part of one line might be considered offensive (to person or persons unknown?).
But today it was back to normal with Eurosport showing live coverage from Tuscany of races rescheduled from Spring. With a packed programme scheduled for the coming months being trapped at home will be a bit more bearable - despite the threats of infection from second waves and the constant stream of new rules to restrict our behaviour.
But this year there are some unique economic clouds to add to those in our summer skies. At the bottom end the over 75’s are facing the cost of a BBC TV licence being deducted from their pensions in August. While at the top end around 9 million furloughed - and government funded - staff are waiting to see what happens when employers are required to start contributing next month. The expectation is that many companies will simply make many of them redundant - with plenty of companies folding to avoid paying their debts.
But the latest round of political micro-management is pushing even the most responsible seniors to the edge of their credibility. And the chief issue today is face coverings.
His statements should have carried some weight considering his position and the specialisation in evidence-based research. However some very basic fact checking reveals the real source of the outbreak - On 7 November 1918, the New Zealand passenger and cargo ship Talune arrived at Apia from Auckland. On board were people suffering from pneumonic influenza, a highly infectious disease already responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths around the world. Although the Talune had been quarantined in Fiji, no such restrictions were imposed in Samoa. Sick passengers were allowed to disembark. The disease spread rapidly through the islands. [NZ Government]
As every Grandad will have now discovered some language that was in widespread use when they were at school is not just banned now but is being put on a par with serious crime. And considering how much serious crime goes unpunished it could be argued that wrong-speak is more likely than theft or violence to land the perpetrator in trouble.
The virus that escaped from somewhere around Wuhan in China has been devastating. Not in the way that the two world wars were - but in its impact on our economies and way of life. It has become the unseen threat that could be hiding on every person and point of contact. The silent bullet that is not felt until days after it has hit its random target.
Answer - they all still have direct flights into London Heathrow.
So what are Grandads doing to fill their free time now that going out for leisure is off the agenda?
Easter celebrations aside the ongoing restrictions mean that there is very little to report. Most Grandads have been limited to local travel for groceries and medicine - hardly newsworthy highlights. True our Prime Minister did have a brush with death but now seems to be on the road to recovery. And the Westminster Labour Party have appointed a new leader and shadow cabinet. Yet any chance of them being in power - or even a meaningful contributor - is years away at best.
Trying to keep up with the ever increasing counts of infections and deaths for make depressing reading - but for the record Italy has had at least 13,915 deaths, Spain 10,935 and the UK has now reached a total of 3,605 - officially. Sadly the figures for the USA seem set to dwarf those of Europe - and looking ahead much of Africa lacks the infrastructure to cope; especially if aid from developed countries is diverted into over-stretched health care services back home.
And at the personal level the number of deaths continues to grow - despite the increasingly draconian restrictions on movement and personal contacts. With 6,077 deaths in Italy and 2,300 in Spain the figure of 335 for the UK seems low - but we face many more yet in the months ahead. And it looks like UK Grandads will be the demographic with the highest mortality. 
Elsewhere in Europe the situation has deteriorated rapidly with worst-case Italy reporting yesterday that 1,016 deaths had been identified as Covid-19 related. And many of these were senior citizens.|
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FOOTNOTES |
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1. We don’t claim copyright on any of this stuff. We won’t hassle you if you reuse it. If you don’t like it here then just move on. We don’t use cookies because we never track your actions. Some of this stuff may link to other sites. What they do is their responsibility. We used to have have links that promised to pay us for any traffic generated but the amounts were peanuts. So these are now being cleared out. |
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2. We haven’t been mis-sold any financial services. We don’t want to make any legal claims against anyone. We don’t want to help you move your offshore funds. We don’t have parcels that could not be delivered. We do have the best deals on utilities. Our web page rankings are not a problem ... |
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